I'm in the 10-10-20 lc game and discussing sports betting. I had a friendly bet with another player where I had laid 185:100 on the yankees to win the series. I offered to let him out for 70 after looking up the odds on wsex. If you pick the middle of the lines the Yankees are -675, or almost 7:1 favorites. He told me there was no way he'd settle since he was getting 2:1.

Ok, that sounds like an opportunity. I offered him a further 3:1 bet on the series outcome. He immediately accepted... as did three other people. Uh, ok. Too bad I don't have an account on one of the betting sites -- I could bet the middle. Or icoukd just enjoy having such a good bet. One odd thing is that this bet feels huge to me despite having several times that on the table -- but this an order of magnitude more than I've bet on sports before.

In the meantime I doubled up in the first three hands dealt at the table, so I can lose the 1200 and still be ahead. :)

A few hands of note, in chronological order:

The game starts when I get there (hmmmmm...). I buy $2200. Second hand, I have KK in the blinds, raise preflop, bet the flop, and push in on the turn. I get called down and win -- he started with 1500 and busted.

A while later I'm up to 4500 when Marcus arrives. He bribes a player $300 to give him his seat, and we pretty quickly get into a hand. Emre and Marcus limp, Eldon raises to 220. He only has 1200 back, but Emre has 3500 and Marcus has infinity, and I'm pretty sure they'll call if I do, so I call with 77 on the button and they in fact call behind. The flop is K(74), ding. Checked to Eldon who jams for 1200. I think for a while and smooth call, Emre folds, and now Marcus pushes all in. I call of course, and the turn and river blank off. Eldon shows A2s for the nut flush draw, Marcus claims a straight flush draw, and then tells me I got lucky that everything worked out the way it did. Indeed.

Eldon rebuys and opens for 80. I raise to 280 in the cutoff with QQ, he calls. The flop is (AK)T, we check. The turn is a Q, he bets out 360. Hm. I call. The river is a K, and he bets 600 with 800 behind. Well, what could he have? I think he'd fold a J if I raise, and I'm behind most of the boats. So either he has a bluff, a J, or a better hand, so raising seems bad unless he specifically has TT. So I just call. He was in fact bluffing with 99.

I have 10,000 and AK late. Marcus opens for 80 and gets a call, and I raise to 320. Marcus now reraises 1000 more. Hm. What's his range here? QQ+/AK? JJ? Actually I think not only will he do it with JJ, he'll also have some random bluffy hands in there too. How will he respond to a raise? I think he'll put me on a giant pair and fold QQ and AK and so on, which makes a raise look really tempting. Ok, I raise 3000 more. He thinks for a while and folds, then asks me if I had AA. No, I tell him, just cowboys. (I wonder if he reads this? This seems like the kind of hand I should probably not reveal. Shhh, don't tell anyone.)

Then I open utg with 99, Emre calls, and Marcus raises 200 more. I call as does Emre. The flop is K92r. I bet out 560, hoping to get raised. Emre folds and Marcus calls. The turn is an 8, putting the second club on the board. I check, Marcus fires 1600, and I check-raise to 4500. Marcus thinks for a bit, then tells me that "it's almost impossible for you to have this hand beat." That strikes me as extremely good news. I have the second nuts, and if he had the nuts I don't see him thinking it might be possible to beat it. Plus that sounds like an unlikely speech to give there with the nuts. Eventually he calls. The river is a J, and I put him in for his last 6500. He sighs, says he has top two, and then tells me I must have 99. Then he calls. Yup, 99, nice read. He shows KcJc for a pair and a flush draw on the turn.

So... you have top pair, ok kicker facing a $3000 bet on the turn and you think it's almost impossible for you to be beat? That deep in a hand I either have top pair beat or a bluff, and mostly not the bluff. You should be thinking, "How likely is it that he's bluffing," not "My hand sure looks good." Though to be fair, he will definitely get the other 6500 on the river if the backdoor clubs show up. He gets up and leaves.

I later relate this hand to a friend in the following way: "I open for 60 early, and you raise with KJs..." and so on. We get to the turn and I ask what he does in Marcus' shoes after he gets check-raised. He replies, "I don't make any of those actions." Yeah, good point. Me neither.

Then a couple of smaller pots. Several people are in for 60, and so am I with ATo on the button. The flop is A66, they check, I bet 260, Eldon calls. The turn is an 8 and he bets out 500. Hm. This looks a lot like a delayed steal, which is a play I've seen him make from time to time, and he's stuck which makes stealing a lot more likely. I think he doesn't really have to have any kind of draw here -- a pocket pair, or KQ, or whatever is definitely possible, so I don't mind giving a cheap card. And if I raise, he can't bluff again. So I call, planning to call the river again. The river is a 7, and sure enough, he bets his last 1200. I call and get shown... 77. Nice hand sir, well played.

I flop another set or two for small pots, and cash out the biggest win I've ever had in a cash game.

Winning is fun. I recommend it to everyone.