Poker, politics, philosophy

a new high score!

2009-11-05T06:14:50Z

A few hands of note, in chronological order:

The game starts when I get there (hmmmmm...). I buy $2200. Second hand, I have KK in the blinds, raise preflop, bet the flop, and push in on the turn. I get called down and win -- he started with 1500 and busted.

A while later I'm up to 4500 when Marcus arrives. He bribes a player $300 to give him his seat, and we pretty quickly get into a hand. Emre and Marcus limp, Eldon raises to 220. He only has 1200 back, but Emre has 3500 and Marcus has infinity, and I'm pretty sure they'll call if I do, so I call with 77 on the button and they in fact call behind. The flop is K(74), ding. Checked to Eldon who jams for 1200. I think for a while and smooth call, Emre folds, and now Marcus pushes all in. I call of course, and the turn and river blank off. Eldon shows A2s for the nut flush draw, Marcus claims a straight flush draw, and then tells me I got lucky that everything worked out the way it did. Indeed.

Eldon rebuys and opens for 80. I raise to 280 in the cutoff with QQ, he calls. The flop is (AK)T, we check. The turn is a Q, he bets out 360. Hm. I call. The river is a K, and he bets 600 with 800 behind. Well, what could he have? I think he'd fold a J if I raise, and I'm behind most of the boats. So either he has a bluff, a J, or a better hand, so raising seems bad unless he specifically has TT. So I just call. He was in fact bluffing with 99.

I have 10,000 and AK late. Marcus opens for 80 and gets a call, and I raise to 320. Marcus now reraises 1000 more. Hm. What's his range here? QQ+/AK? JJ? Actually I think not only will he do it with JJ, he'll also have some random bluffy hands in there too. How will he respond to a raise? I think he'll put me on a giant pair and fold QQ and AK and so on, which makes a raise look really tempting. Ok, I raise 3000 more. He thinks for a while and folds, then asks me if I had AA. No, I tell him, just cowboys. (I wonder if he reads this? This seems like the kind of hand I should probably not reveal. Shhh, don't tell anyone.)

Then I open utg with 99, Emre calls, and Marcus raises 200 more. I call as does Emre. The flop is K92r. I bet out 560, hoping to get raised. Emre folds and Marcus calls. The turn is an 8, putting the second club on the board. I check, Marcus fires 1600, and I check-raise to 4500. Marcus thinks for a bit, then tells me that "it's almost impossible for you to have this hand beat." That strikes me as extremely good news. I have the second nuts, and if he had the nuts I don't see him thinking it might be possible to beat it. Plus that sounds like an unlikely speech to give there with the nuts. Eventually he calls. The river is a J, and I put him in for his last 6500. He sighs, says he has top two, and then tells me I must have 99. Then he calls. Yup, 99, nice read. He shows KcJc for a pair and a flush draw on the turn.

So... you have top pair, ok kicker facing a $3000 bet on the turn and you think it's almost impossible for you to be beat? That deep in a hand I either have top pair beat or a bluff, and mostly not the bluff. You should be thinking, "How likely is it that he's bluffing," not "My hand sure looks good." Though to be fair, he will definitely get the other 6500 on the river if the backdoor clubs show up. He gets up and leaves.

I later relate this hand to a friend in the following way: "I open for 60 early, and you raise with KJs..." and so on. We get to the turn and I ask what he does in Marcus' shoes after he gets check-raised. He replies, "I don't make any of those actions." Yeah, good point. Me neither.

Then a couple of smaller pots. Several people are in for 60, and so am I with ATo on the button. The flop is A66, they check, I bet 260, Eldon calls. The turn is an 8 and he bets out 500. Hm. This looks a lot like a delayed steal, which is a play I've seen him make from time to time, and he's stuck which makes stealing a lot more likely. I think he doesn't really have to have any kind of draw here -- a pocket pair, or KQ, or whatever is definitely possible, so I don't mind giving a cheap card. And if I raise, he can't bluff again. So I call, planning to call the river again. The river is a 7, and sure enough, he bets his last 1200. I call and get shown... 77. Nice hand sir, well played.

I flop another set or two for small pots, and cash out the biggest win I've ever had in a cash game.

Winning is fun. I recommend it to everyone.

Sports betting at the poker table

2009-11-04T22:56:55Z

I'm in the 10-10-20 lc game and discussing sports betting. I had a friendly bet with another player where I had laid 185:100 on the yankees to win the series. I offered to let him out for 70 after looking up the odds on wsex. If you pick the middle of the lines the Yankees are -675, or almost 7:1 favorites. He told me there was no way he'd settle since he was getting 2:1.

Ok, that sounds like an opportunity. I offered him a further 3:1 bet on the series outcome. He immediately accepted... as did three other people. Uh, ok. Too bad I don't have an account on one of the betting sites -- I could bet the middle. Or icoukd just enjoy having such a good bet. One odd thing is that this bet feels huge to me despite having several times that on the table -- but this an order of magnitude more than I've bet on sports before.

In the meantime I doubled up in the first three hands dealt at the table, so I can lose the 1200 and still be ahead. :)

prop bets

2009-10-29T16:51:06Z

Yesterday's session at Lucky Chances was entertaining. One of the players I talk a lot about is Eldon. I think his A game is the best I've ever seen -- his hand reading is tremendous, and when he's in tight/aggressive/selective bluff mode, he's really tough. But I'm pretty sure he is a decent to big loser in the game because he periodically blows up and bluffs off thousands in a session.

Yesterday he took a beat, started playing looser, lost with AQ all in preflop against 96s for 2000, played looser, lost again to a 5 outer for 3000 after the money went in on the turn, and was in full steam mode. He started offering various bets to people. He offered me this: ever time he wins a pot he pays me 100; every time I win a pot I pay him 80. Blind steals count. I was three seats to his right for a moderate positional advantage.

So on the face of it, this is a super good bet for me. In our normal games he plays more hands than I do; when he's steaming he plays a ton of hands. But it does mean we can almost never play a hand, and certainly never raise preflop unless the pot is already big. Pot-building raises preflop only.

I declined for two reasons. One is that I'm not sure I'd be better at adjusting than he is. It would take me out of my regular, winning game. The second is that it would give him a good reason to tighten up, and I really didn't want that. So I declined.

Here's why I didn't want to take the bet. Some time later, he's lost more again mostly due to bad beats, and still hot. I open for 60 from the middle with AdJd, and then learn that it's a kill pot so it's 80 to go. Bah, ok, I limp for 80. The kill (between the sb and button) calls, and Eldon in the bb calls. The flop is As4c2s, they check, I bet 140. Eldon calls. The turn is another 4. He bets 500, I think and call planning to call on any nonspade river, and maybe on a spade river too. The river is a J, ding. He bets 2000, and I decide not to raise my last $140 and just call. He has A9.

Somehow I don't think I was getting 2500 out of the prop bet. If he's in his normal game he would never ever make such an insane river bet.

Bonus Eldon hand: Eldon opens for 80, one call, I raise to 380 with red AA. He reraises 700 more. I have 4400 back and smooth call. The flop is Q84cc, he bets out 1400, I push for 3000 more. He thinks for a while and folds what he claims was KK, telling me I could only have AA, or maybe possibly QQ. Huh. That's a pretty good read. I reward it when he bets with another player about my hand and pays me $40 bucks. Eldon won if I beat or tied his claimed KK, he lost if I didn't -- so he got a $500 refund from a third player.

naughty, naughty prosecutors

2009-10-26T18:37:25Z

So there's a journalism class at Northwestern that investigates claims of wrongful convictions and innocence in inmates. It's called the Medill Innocence Project, and it's been around for a decade, and gotten 11 innocent men out of jail, including 5 from death row.

So of course, they're still at it, this time investigating a 31-year-old murder conviction. The Cook County prosecutors are having none of it this time, though. They are subpoenaing grades, transcripts, and so on for the whole class.

Local prosecutors have subpoenaed the grades, grading criteria, class syllabus, expense reports and e-mail messages of the journalism students themselves.

The prosecutors, it seems, wish to scrutinize the methods of the students this time. The university is fighting the subpoenas.

Wow. Intimidation much?

What the students have found is pretty interesting, too.

The students said they had found, among other things, that two eyewitnesses had recanted their testimony against Mr. McKinney and could not have seen him commit the killing because they were watching a boxing championship (Leon Spinks vs. Muhammad Ali). The students collected an affidavit from a gang member who, they say, confirmed Mr. McKinney’s alibi that he was running away from gang members when the shooting took place.

The students have also suggested alternative suspects in the case and offered witnesses who said they had heard the others admit their involvement.

It doesn't surprise me that prosecutors don't like to admit that they were wrong. It does somewhat surprise me that prosecutors don't like to admit that their predecessors 30 years ago might have been wrong. Why fight to keep an innocent man in jail if he's really innocent? Why not find out and let him out if they were wrong? It's not like you have to say you yourself made a mistake; indeed, you can play yourself as the hero righting a wrong.

Or you can go after a class of journalism students. Which, btw, seems like a stupid group to try to intimidate. It seems like the perfect place for them to go to the press, with whom their hoping to work and would love some real contact.

two big hands with John

2009-10-16T19:04:03Z

I was only in one of them.

1) John opens for 80 from the cutoff, I have Ah9h on the button and contemplate reraising but just call. I have about 5000, he has me way covered. The flop is Kh9x4h, ding. He bets 200, and again I just call. The turn is another 9, ding again. He bets out 520. I think this is a fine place to just call, since it's really hard for him to have more than about two outs against me, and if I raise and he pushes I'm probably in trouble. The river is a blank, and he bets 1600.

That river bet is scary. He's not doing with with AA or AK, those are checking, or maybe a small blocking bet. At this point I think he has KK, but he could have a worse 9, maybe? Since I have the pair+flush draw hand there are almost no draws he could have. QhJh or similar, I guess. Anyway I eventually crying call hoping to see a 9. Which he has, but has a K to go with it.

2) John limps for 40, I limp along, a tight/aggressive/good player named Mike raises from the button to 200. John cold calls. They are both very deep, >$10,000. I fold. The flop is 7d3x2d. John checks, Mike bets 340, and John raises to 900. Mike calls. The turn pairs the 2, and John bets 1600. Mike thinks for a while and calls. The river is an offsuit 8, John bets 4400, Mike tanks for a good while and then folds what he claims was rockets.

John immediately racks up and leaves, and the table spends the next hour arguing about what he had. He's very tight, but he's also capable of running a bluff in the right situation. Eldon is 100% convinced he flopped a set and improved on the turn, and offers 10:1 on John's hand (full or better). There are immediately a big pile of takers, including me, so he backs off to 5:1. Still a bunch of takers, and he weasels down to 3:1 and books $1200 worth of action (not including me). Sam, who took the bet, reveals he folded a 7.

So what could John have? He claimed as he was racking up that he was going to leave right then no matter what. If that's true he might play a little looser than normal. He limped, then called 160 more. He'd do that with 77 for sure, and probably with 33 and 22. Would he do it with 54s? Maybe. A5s? I dunno about that. ATs? Probably not. His hand is totally polarized on the river: he either has a full house or quads, or he has a total bluff. Would he play a hand like 5d4d like that? Certainly sometimes.

So let's count. If he plays like that with his flush draw+straight draw hands, those are A4s, A5s, 54s. I'm going to discount the vanilla flush draws down to nothing, because he folds most of them preflop and would only very, very rarely play them that strongly. So that's three ways. He could have 77 one way, 33 three ways, 22 one way, and that's it. But I think you also have to discount the bluffs, because he often folds those preflop or doesn't play them that hard postflop.

So if I were getting 5:1 on the river I'd call. 2.3:1 or whatever Mike was getting is a clear fold (though I'd have folded his AA on the turn).

One thing I think is amusing is that there was no consideration that John might not be totally honest. There's $1200:400 of action on his word. That's a fair amount of trust. I did bet Eldon $20 that John would not reveal in the next four weeks.

poor, poor iphone

2009-10-15T04:57:58Z

Iphone, meet cement floor of the Lucky Chances parking garage.

On the upside, I did win enough money this week to pay for a new one. Also, interestingly, one of the other people in the game bought it from me after I replace it. He gave me $100, and I agreed to give him the phone next week. I think he's going to refurb it and export it, but frankly I'm happy to get anything at all for it.

This is Sam, for those of you who know him. I also made the following two bets with him: I bet $100, even odds, on the Phillies to win the NLCS, and bet $150 to win $100 on the Yankees to win the ALCS. Looking at the odds online, the first bet is bad and the second bet is good. I don't actually know how to back out the house edge, though, so I don't see an easy way to calculate the EV on these bets assuming the Vegas lines are right. This is why I'm not a sports bettor generally.

So according to WSEX, the Yankees are -196 and the Angels are +156, so Sam is getting nearly the deal he could get with them, but I'm getting a much better deal on the Yankees. Similarly, the Dodgers are -122, but the Phillies are even, so I'm getting the same deal as online but he's getting the better one there. Anyone want to tell me who got the better end of this trade by how much? I think it's me but I'm not really sure.

jackson's playlist

2009-09-30T19:38:22Z

Jackson, being no fan of NPR, likes to listen to music in the car. So I oblige him. Mostly I play requests, but sometimes I can't look at my phone right then or am bored of the same thing over and over, so he does get exposed to various things.

Recently he requested "a train song." I had no idea what he was talking about, but on further discussion, he really wanted a song about a train. Okay... um... I have 8 gigs of music on my phone, there must be a song about a train in there somewhere. I eventually thought of two: I thought I might have City of New Orleans by Arlo Guthrie, and I definitely had Casey Jones by the Dead. The latter seemed rather inappropriate for a toddler, so I looked for the former. It turns out I didn't have that version, but I did have a cover by Judy Collins, which I had never to my knowledge listened to before. Jackson loved it, asks for it all the time: "City of Moo Orleans!"

I just put the songs he frequently requests into a playlist for ease of finding them. Here it is, the tastes of a 21st century 2-year-old (almost) when exposed to his dad's out-of-date music collection.

If I Had A Hammer	Peter, Paul & Mary
Life Is A Highway	Rascal Flatts
City Of New Orleans	Judy Collins
Suddenly I See		KT Tunstall
Sweet Home Alabama	Lynyrd Skynyrd
Burning Down The House	Talking Heads
Puff The Magic Dragon	Peter, Paul & Mary
Down By the Bay		Raffi
If I Had $1000000	Barenaked Ladies

I'm not really sure what to make of that. He wasn't impressed by the Beatles. Today he heard and liked Hey There Delilah by the Plain White T's, but I don't know if it's going to make his standard rotation.

Anyone have a better idea for a train song?

here's a list

2009-09-25T23:09:05Z

View Poll: #1462574

just two hands

2009-08-29T03:55:05Z

I got away to LC for a last pre-baby session, played for four hours and only had two and a half big hands.

First, I open utg with JJ for 60, one call, then Erik, a young, tight-aggressive player, raises 210 more. I have 1400 total and consider calling then betting the flop with no A or K, but decide I have a good amount of fold equity here so I jam instead. He has KK and I don't have any fold equity, or any equity at all on the T high board by the river.

Second, I open for 60 in early position with AQ, two calls, and Marcus in the bb raises 300 more. I have 2100 or so, and know he's doing this with a ton of hands. I consider jamming but decide I'm too deep, so I call. Flop is A94cc, he bets 420 and I push for 1470 more. He thinks and folds.

Third, Marcus opens early in a kill pot for 120, I have 3500 and just call with AK to vary. John calls behind, and then Eldon raises 600 more in the bb, and Marcus calls. Hm, a pot sized raise is 2900, and this seems like another spot with a ton of fold equity, so I jam for my 3500. Eldon overjams quickly for a few hundred more, and Marcus has a long time to consider while we fix the dealer error after she made change out of my stack and randomly stuck a bunch of it in the middle. This involved completely reconstructing the action, and by the end of it, Marcus had decided to call.

Eldon told me I had AK. He's pretty good at that sometimes. He had QQ, and Marcus claimed a pair but didn't show. I hit an A on the flop and tripled up. I didn't win enough to make up for last session, but got a good chunk of the way back. So I got that going for me.

evidence based parenting: the first few posts

2009-08-27T16:14:07Z

As I mentioned in this space earlier, I recently launched Evidence Based Parenting to discuss applying research to parenting decisions. So far it's been pretty slow, not really surprisingly -- it's always hard to start something new and have anyone notice it. I haven't done much promoting of it before I had some content so that people could see what it's all about. But there's some now.

So go take a look. I'm interested in feedback on two things: content and design. What do you think about the level of the content? Interesting, accessible, remotely useful? Also, I'm thinking the design might be too plain, though I'd like to hear comments about that as well. For instance, one common thing that many blogs do is to always include an image with every post. It's pretty easy to find something on flickr that would at least be related.

Here's a handy list of the things I've posted so far for ease of reference:

why we're here, the intro to the blog
kids, tv, and hypertension, a study on the correlation between couch-potatoness and hypertension (summary: TV but not computer use is linked to high blood pressure)
getting it wrong: science in the press, an example of how media reports distort science
too restrictive, or too much, about training your kids not to crave sweets by providing an unlimited amount of them
duct tape, the perfect material, on duct tape as a cure for warts (it works!)
see the future in a marshmallow, a discussion of the famous marshmallow study that measures kids' willpower at age 4 and can predict SATs better than an IQ test
guilt, the new willpower, looking at how emotions can supplement or replace conscious willpower for behavior control

a big number

2009-08-25T17:58:55Z

New deficit projections are out:

For 2009, the deficit is now projected at $1.58 trillion. There will be a $5 trillion increase in red ink over the next five years and a total of $9 trillion over 10 years.

As usual the political parties are blaming each other. It almost makes me want to go build a seastead or something.

a bad session

2009-08-23T02:23:47Z

Last night I went to LC for some no limit, and I decided ahead of time I'd get back to recording my big hands, where a big hand is defined as my making or calling a bet over 500. This session turned out to be a doozy, with tons of big hands, so here's a veritable potpourri of, well, mostly of losing.

1. Marcus opens utg for 80, Eldon calls as do two other people. I find black aces in the big blind and raise to 500. Marcus instantly calls and Eldon comes too. I only have 1600 back, so my plan is to jam any flop without an ace or three spades or three clubs. The flop comes A82hh, so I check. Marcus bets 700, Eldon raises to 2000, and I of course call with the nuts. Marcus calls as well, and fires on the 5h turn. Eldon folds his set of 8's, and Marcus' 6h4h flush holds up. Rebuy!

2. A tightish player who used to be a regular in the game but hasn't been around for a while, Ron maybe?, opens for 60 in the middle. I call in the cutoff with KTs, the button and big blind come along. The flop is JTThh, Ron bets out 100, I raise to 360 with 1600 back (he has more). He ships, I call, he has the nut flush draw but my hand holds up.

3. Ron opens for 60 again, and Sam calls. I raise to 240 with KhKc and only Sam calls (I'm surprised he called. Medium pair, maybe, looking for a set?) The flop is 443cc, we both check. Turn is a Q, Sam checks, I bet 400, he calls. River is the third club. He counts out 600 with 800 back and then checks. I think he'll bet with any kind of made hand here instead of going for the check raise since I'm checking behind so often in that spot, so I bet the 600. He thinks and calls, and my hand is good. He claims a Q. Back to even!

4. Will, a youngish asian player who has trouble laying down decent hands but otherwise plays pretty well, opens for 40 utg. I try to raise to 120 with AhAs, but fumble out 100 instead. Marcus on the button and Will call. The flop is 653cc, Will checks, I bet 280, Marcus calls, and now Will check-raises 1000 more with 2000 back, I have 3600, and Marcus has infinity. Hm, I'm not sure what to make of this. Will could definitely have a set here, but he could also have an overpair or a flush draw. I'm not ready to give this up yet, but I don't really like jamming since it folds out the hands I beat but gets called by the big draws and sets, so I just call. But now Marcus jams, and Will tanks and folds.

Hm. Marcus is very capable of smooth calling a set on the flop, but he's also very capable of running a squeeze play here with a flush draw or straight draw. I think he'll mostly raise sets since his image gets him lots of action if I have a big pair, plus I've shown I'm willing to call him light. So I think this is probably a squeeze play. I call. He has KcTc and gets there. Bah.

5. Marcus is getting up but playing one more hand. I tell him it's his last hand and he's winning (he's up like 14k) so he should kill it. He does, whee. I find AQs late and open for 120, and Sam pushes in the sb for 1000 exactly. I snap call, but his AJo hits a J on the turn.

6. I open for 60 early with red rockets with 3200 behind, one call, and Eldon raises to 200. I reraise to 700, and he calls. The flop is Q85hh, I bet 1200, which is half my stack. He calls. The turn is a J, I jam, he calls with QQ. I was pretty sure I was beat after he called the flop, but my theory is that if I get more 20% of my stack in with rockets preflop I'm not folding heads up, and he can go ahead and set farm all he likes. Still, putting in that last 1200 didn't feel good. 0-3 with aces today, felted every time.

7. Three limpers to my bb, and I toss in a chip with K5o. The flop is KQ6ss, checked around. The turn is a 4, and I bet 120. A fish calls, and now Sam asks the fish how much he has and raises 300 more. Ok, that's odd. The board was drawy and Sam was in late position on the flop, so he's betting basically all of his top pair or better hands there. The only good hand I think he can have is a set of 4's, but that seems tremendously unlikely. He probably has a draw. I call and the fish folds. River is an offsuit deuce, and I check again, and Sam bets 900, most of the pot. I still think he has way more draws than made hands there, but he is a rock. I think it through and decide it really almost has to be a draw, so I call. He raps the table and then looks completely disgusted when I table my hand and scoop the pot.

8. Eldon and John limp late and I call in the bb with 32s. (I like getting 5.5:1 with almost any two, but there probably should be limits. I folded J2o and 32o earlier in similar situations, but call with any two suited and K5. Not sure what the right balance is.) Flop is 922r, ding. Checked around. Turn is a 5, I bet 80 and Eldon calls. River is a 7, I bet 160, and now Eldon raises 500 more. I don't see how that 7 could have hit him. Did he slowplay a 2 twice? It's a small pot and a big bet; I should probably fold here. But I call. He has 77.

9. Someone opens in the field for 80, John calls on the button, I call in the bb with 5s4s. Flop is 9d8s7s. Checked to John who bets 200, I raise to 600, John puts me in for 2400 more. I fold, he shows the As.

10. I open for 60 with 1500 back holding QQ. Sam calls, and Eldon raises 300 more from the sb. I smooth call in position, planning to get it in on a safe looking flop. Sam folds. The flop is T84cc. Eldon bets 500, I push, he has TT and I bust again.

At this point it's pretty late and I'm tired of busting, so I head out. A new personal loss record for a session at over $11k. Sigh. Anyone think I played any of those hands egregiously poorly? I'm going to chalk up most of this to variance, but it's very hard to evaluate how much a few bad beats affects your play.

writing a unique sentence in english

2009-08-15T22:14:24Z

theferrett just claimed that he'd written a unique sentence, and was a tiny bit proud:

Trillions of English words are spoken daily, in many configurations. At this point, it's hard to put together a reasonable sentence that hasn't already been said by someone else; sure, you can mash together a set of random words like "May I mambo dogface in the banana patch?", but for most of the things you'd want to convey you have to realize that you're trodding a well-worn path.

Every once in a while, though, you get the pleasure of speaking a sentence that you can be almost certain has not been spoken before by any human, living or dead. And then you sit back and such in a deep, happy sigh at making a little notch in the world - even if no one ever sees it, you know that you have been as unique as it is possible for an organism to be.

My contribution?

"I invited my periodontist to play Rock Band: Beatles."

Obviously an amusing throwaway post, but it occurred to me that actually pretty much any sentence over about 9 or 10 words was unique because of how many possible sentences there were. I pointed that out, and he wasn't impressed. I thought I'd reproduce (and lightly refine) the math here, because it's really mind boggling, and really counterintuitive until you see it.

So let's say you have roughly 40,000 words in your vocabulary, counting brand names and proper nouns. That puts the cap on the number of 10 word sentences you could generate at 10^26 assuming no grammar rules. Grammar constrains the hell out of that, so let's say only one in a million of those is a real sentence that someone might say. So we have 10^20 possible sentences.

Ok, on the other side, how many 10 word sentences get spoken or written in a day. Let's say 10 per person, because most of your spoken sentences are short, and the number of words in a sentence is super variable (this sentence has 38, for instance), so 10 words is a pretty small target. But it could be 100 and wouldn't make much difference.

How many english speakers are there in the world? Let's say a billion, which I'm sure is an overestimate of the number that speak english day to day. So that's 10 billion candidates per day, or trillion candidates per year. That's 4*10^12, or to put it another way, it'll take like 10,000,000 years for all the 10 word sentences to be uttered assuming no overlap.

Let's run the calculation backward. English has been around for less than 1,000 years, so let's use that as a starting point. What's the average number of speakers over that time? Can't possibly be more than 100 million, so 10^8 people times 10^3 years times 10^4 10 word sentences per year per person (again an overestimate) and we get 10^15 10 word english sentences uttered throughout history. So for any given 10 word sentence, you have a one in one hundred thousand chance of uttering a previously spoken sentence assuming the language hasn't changed at all in the last thousand years.

The odds only get worse as the number of words goes up. Each extra word adds at least a couple of orders of magnitude to the number of candidate sentences, and maybe quite a bit more. So revel in the fact that every longish sentence you say is unique, yours, and nobody else's.

evidence based parenting: a new blog

2009-08-10T23:44:50Z

I'm starting another blog! One focused on a specific topic area: Evidence Based Parenting.

The idea is that most parenting advice I see is experience based rather than evidence based, and there isn't really a place for the general public to talk about studies and scientific evidence as they relate to raising kids.

It's an interesting area, to me, in part because it's so hard. If you read some story in the paper about how tv causes obesity or whatever, it's hard to know how seriously to take it, and how or if you should change your behavior based on what you read.

Even talking to your doctor is fraught with problems: their knowledge may be years out of date for whatever particular question you have, they may have opinions that are stronger than the evidence supports, or they could misremember the evidence. Even organizations like the AAP gets things wrong (which we'll talk about on the blog). For instance, their long standing advice on restricting peanuts for the under two set turns out to be not only unnecessary but wrong. (They just updated their recommendation to restrict only the first year, but that's probably wrong too.)

I'm still playing a bit with the layout and design of the site. Feedback appreciated.

I expect to update daily about news articles or studies or what have you, with a periodic (weekly?) longer research piece on topic areas of interest, like patrissimo's recent request about how much TV is safe for a 4 year old.

some notes on jackson's language development

2009-08-05T04:56:16Z

Watching him learn to talk is my favorite part of parenthood. It's really quite entertaining. He is amazingly talkative and fluent for being 21 months old, but that just leads to amusing conversations like this from today:

J: See Grandpa, wanna see Grandpa.
K: He's traveling right now. He'll be back in a week.
J: Grandpa in Las Vegas, playing poker!

One of the things I keep track of is how long his sentences are. Most of his sentences are 3 or 4 words, with up to 5 being fairly common, the occasional 6, and rarely a 7. But in the last week and a half, he's had two eight word sentences:

J: I want to drive it all night long.

Now, that one might not count for two reasons. First, he actually said "wanna" instead of "want to", though he knows the two separate words so I think it counts. Second, though, that's actually a song lyric from Life is a Highway, which he loves and we were just listening to. So... yeah, nice memory, but not a real sentence. However, a couple days later he said:

J: You want to put it on the table.

Again with the "wanna", but a legitimate 8. "You" there refers to him, since he hasn't quite figured out pronouns. It's tricky: when we say "you" around him, we pretty much always mean him, and when I say something like, "Want me to pick it up?" "me" always refers to Daddy and not Jackson.

On the other hand, sometimes we correct him, and he definitely understands that something's not right about the whole thing, as evidenced by conversations like this:

J: You want to go outside!
D: I do?
*pause*
J: Jackson wants to go outside!

He's also starting overgeneralization, which I'd been expecting but hadn't seen yet. Actually, the same day as the song quote above, our lunch partner, a pediatrician, had asked if he'd been doing it yet. I said no, but that week I started noticing it.

Overgeneralization is when he figures out a grammatical rule, like to make something plural you should add an -s to the end, or -ed puts something in the past tense, but then applies it to words that are irregular. Last week he emitted:

J: The mans leaved!

What's interesting about that is that he had both "men" and "left" a couple of weeks ago, and replaced them with the incorrect "mans" and "leaved". What this means is that he used to have separate mental dictionary entries for "man" and "men", but now he's combined them into one entry and is applying the rule to make a plural. Eventually he'll update the entry to reflect that it's irregular and it'll all be good.

One thing I wished I knew where to find is the distribution of language acquisition among children. It's easy to find a good list of average development by age, where Jackson can do most of the three year old milestones and some of the four year old ones, so it's clear he's quite advanced for his age. What I don't know, though, is how unusual that is. Is language development high enough variance that it's not remarkable that he's so far ahead? Or is he some kind of linguistic super genius?

My guess is neither, that his ability is rare but not incredible. But I'd still like to know. I suppose I'd have to ask an actual scientist in the field, since that sort of thing is hard to google.

on consequentialist versus moral libertarianism

2009-07-26T04:19:32Z

I have a lot of sympathy for many of the ideas behind libertarianism, from a consequentialist point of view. Our government is large, and its very size, not to mention many of its policies, cause lots of problems. In a lot of ways, it would be nice to be able to trade in our large government problems for the different set of problems you get with a very small government, for the change of pace if nothing else. Plus it would be really interesting to see if it works.

However, much of the libertarian discussion I've participated in over the years is about the moral dimension of government, and here, the libertarian argument falls flat. Not only that, but the libertarians seem to me to be quite smug and glib about their supposedly more moral government. It's quite the turn-off, and I wonder if that sort of thing hurts the libertarian cause. patrissimo provided an example this week of the shaky nature of their arguments in a series of posts on the topic.

It started when he was posting on an only semi-related topic (why we shouldn't be quite so proud of the moon landing</a>), and I objected to the standard libertarian practice of equating taxes to theft. They share some similarities, I wrote, but so do taxes and home owner's association fees, and anyway "some similarities" aren't enough for equivalence. Here was the evolution in the discussion over time:

1) The government is like the mafia in that they take money backed with the threat of force and don't do anything worthwhile with it. I think that's fundamentally a disingenuous position when talking about morals, since "taxation is theft" doesn't say anything about what you do with the money. If the government did good things with it instead of mostly wasting it, libertarians would still dislike the large government and taxation. And would be even more in the minority than they are now. Patri more or less agreed that taxation would still be immoral.

2) The discussion then veered into issues like whether being able to leave matters (Patri says no with a series of over-the-top analogies that he must know couldn't possibly convince someone who didn't alread agree with him) and the moral basis of democracy, but those are pretty much beside the point. Libertarians believe that taxes are theft regardless of whether you can leave or how the government decided to impose them.

3) So why aren't taxes like rents in an apartment building? You have to pay it if you live there, and it sucks when they go up, but the landlord isn't behaving immorally. The libertarian answer, and I think the only answer possible, is that the landlord legitimately owns the land, whereas the government doesn't legitimately own the territory it controls. Patri indeed makes this argument here and in several other comments, by pointing out that the government stole the land from the native people through force.

There are two huge problems with this position that I have never seen answered. The first is that literally every inhabited patch of land in the world was taken with violence from one group or another in the course of history, many times over. If the only way to have the moral right to impose rents or taxes on your territory is to have an unbroken chain of custody extending into antiquity, then no property is morally held. Not just by government, but by individuals, who are in adverse possession of stolen property and must return it immediately.

I'm pretty unimpressed with an argument that says that because bad things happened a few hundred years ago (or more in the case of older countries) that nobody has any land rights now. And even if there's an argument I haven't thought of that persuasively distinguishes private property from territories of nations in terms of legitimacy, this still renders all governments, no matter how free or corrupt, equally immoral. Something's wrong with that.

The other problem with this position is that it seems to me to be rationalizing. I am quite sure that when someone declares taxes to be theft, they don't mean "taxes are theft (unless the government acquired the land in a moral way 200 years ago)." They mean they think taxes are like theft. The silly historical justification of territoriality is only needed to explain why taxes are bad but things that look a lot like taxes, such as HOA fees or rents are ok. But I think libertarians are fundamentally against taxes because they don't like them, and the moral justification is just trying to make it look coherent.

This is why I don't mind consequentialist libertarianism. If your argument is that taxes are bad because big governments are controlled by special interests and are inherently unwieldy and wasteful, that's a perfectly reasonable position to take. You might well be right, and it'd be nice to have some more empirical evidence either way.

But moral libertarianism is basically the religious belief that taxes are wrong, backed up by arguments that sound reasonable but are either incoherent (government ownership of stolen territory is wrong, but private ownership of stolen territory is fine) or totally inconsistent with belief in real property (all land is stolen, it should be returned to descendants of the original owners).

Now, maybe I'm wrong. But I've had at least half a dozen conversations with people who took the moral libertarian side, and they always backed into the "stolen land" argument eventually. And I have a hard time believing that any of them remotely considers how the government acquired its territory when they are thinking about their positions. They take for granted that government is somehow illegitimate as the foundation for their beliefs, and don't really need to think about why.

To be fair, I think basically all arguments about the moral basis for government have the same underlying problem: that people assume that certain classes of government are good or bad and prop up their belief with weak arguments. That's why I think you have to approach government from a consequentialist perspective: what works, what makes people the most well off, and who cares about the moral justifications.

Edit: Just to clarify, this isn't meant to be an attack on patrissimo. He has generally been all about consequences and not at all about the moral underpinnings, until a few posts this week. His recent posts have just moved back to the (in my view inconsistent) libertarian mainstream.

night night: a conversation

2009-07-14T03:17:33Z

Me: Night night backyard birds, night night nocturnal animals, night night United States of America¹. Night night Barack Obama, night night our ever vanishing civil liberties.
Jackson: Night vanishing... vanish...
Katy: Civil liberties!
Jackson: Civil liberties. Liberties wake up liberties. Smash crash liberties!

He has a surprising deep understanding of politics for one so young.

¹: He has posters of backyard birds, nocturnal animals, and the united states in his room. They're part of the nightly night nights.

wsop main event report

2009-07-09T18:27:23Z

Not much to report, sadly: I busted on the first day.

Things started out quite well. The table was pretty soft, lots of people seeing flops, no three betting. One player seemed to me to be dangerous, playing lots of hands, making lots of small bets -- I later found out it was John Tabatabai. But I had position on him, and he never really got it going.

I actually really like being behind players like that. We'd have hands like: he minraises from the field, I call in latish position with like T7o, flop comes AT4, he continuation bets then folds to my raise. That turns out to be much better for me than stealing the blinds. I didn't do it every hand, but did it pretty often.

For some reason I got a ton of hands utg -- I think I raised 6 of the 8 utg hands I had in the first level. Only once was I really out of line, with A7s. The most memorable was raising with AKs, flopping the nuts, smooth calling the flop and the turn and getting a bet called on the river. After the first level, I had about $40k.

But I lost half my stack over the course of several hands in the second level. Here are two:

I defend the bb with KJo against a late position raiser. Flop comes J87. I check intending to raise, but he checks behind. Turn is a 4, I bet, he calls. River is another 7, I bet half the pot, now he raises to 2.5 times my bet. Can I fold here? Is he ever bluffing? I call and he has 67 for trips.

Here was a bad one. Early position tight player raises the 100 blind to 525, another guy tries to limp, and then once he is informed of the raise says he would have folded but since he is forced to leave his limp in now calls. I defend the BB with 8h7h. Flop is 76h5h, ding. I check, utg bets 1000, guy cold calls, I raise to 4200, utg folds, limpy guy calls. Turn is the Jh. I'm actually slightly concerned about a higher flush draw since he called twice, so I check. He checks behind. River is the ugly Qh. I check again, he bets 7000. I tell him I can only beat a bluff, and he immediately flips down his sunglasses and stares stone faced at the center of the table. I'm not sure what to make of this, but I eventually call -- in retrospect I don't like this call at all, since I hadn't yet seen him bluff. He declares straight flush and flips over Th9h. He is genuinely surprised to discover he doesn't have a straight flush that he was slowplaying on the turn -- he said he was hoping I had the Ah. I sure wish I had it too.

The next level I went back to playing lots of small pots and mostly winning them, firing at weakness and avoiding strength. Only that pro was playing the same game, and he didn't seem to be able to adjust to my picking on him from behind. The fourth or fifth time I raised him on the flop he thought for a long time, maybe to try and make a play. I had bottom set, so I really wish he had. I decided to slowplay the next time I had a real hand against him:

He opened early for 600, a minraise (no antes yet). I raise to 1800 with AQo, he calls. Flop is AJx, he checks and I do too. Turn is another A, we check again. River is a J, he bets out 2000, I raise to 6000, he thinks for a few seconds and calls... with A9. So I could have gotten a ton of value on the turn had I pulled the trigger then. And still chopped on the river.

I chip back up to a starting stack by dinner. After dinner, I stopped hitting flops. Lots of hands like, I raise to 1025, bb defends, flop is A high, he calls my cbet with an A and we check it down and I lose.

Here's a weird one at the 150-300-25 level: utg limper, the straight flush guy raises to 825, one cold caller, I call in the bb with 7s4s, utg calls. Flop is Ad8s5s, which seems good. I check intending to check-raise, checked around. Turn is the 4d, so I have a pair to go with my gutshot straight flush draw, and nobody seems to want this pot, so I bet 1600. Utg folds, and the raiser now makes it 5000. Button folds... and now what should I do? All my options seem reasonable here. I eventually decide to call -- I'm getting correct odds if all my outs are good, plus implied odds, but I don't know which of my outs are likely to be good. Against AK, say, I'm drawing fine, and I think there's a chance he's raising a diamond draw. River is the 7d, one of those cards I don't know if it's good or not. I check, he thinks for a long time and checks behind. Ok, I probably win. I turn over my two pair, and he tables... Qd6d, the second nuts. "You thought so long before checking I was worried you had the K high flush," he explained.

So at the end of level 4, I'm down to 16k. I'm still deep enough for some play at the 200-400-50 level, but have less than half an average stack. I decide to tighten up because of that and because it's getting late and I'm tired. After a couple of rounds I open raise with AA, get three bet with AKs and shove, he calls, and my hand holds up. Whee.

I rarely see a flop for the next hour, maybe two or three in that time, from the bb or steal position. I do take down two pots by three betting preflop, so I actually chip up a little in that time. Then, 15 minutes from the end of the day, a big stack who is new to the table raises to 1200 from three off, and I defend the bb with J9. The flop is Jh9xh, ding. I check, he bets 1800, I raise to 6000. He thinks for a bit and reraises to 16000. Hm. Well, I think my hand is good enough here, so I shove for 34000ish. He thinks for 30 seconds, says he hopes I don't have a set, and calls (correctly) with Ah9h. He's got 12 outs twice, and indeed hits a heart on the river and I am out.

So... bah. I was happy to be making day two even with a slightly below average stack. I felt like I had a lot of good opportunities, shoulda made a couple of laydowns I didn't, but was generally happy with my play and with the table. But I'm not sure what I could have done on the last hand. I guess I could stop and go on the flop to defend against the draw, but I at least did get it all in with the best hand.

Oh well. Next year, I guess.

third time's the charm?

2009-07-05T22:21:42Z

Main event, here I come. Playing tomorrow, for the third time. In '04, I died at the very end of the first day. In '05, I got all in with just one out and busted in the second level.

This year I'm a much better no limit player than I was then, though I actually think I played quite well both those times. I don't look back at any of the major hands and have any regrets at how I played them.

In Brasilia, table 161 seat 2.

more on the mega

2009-06-30T23:43:48Z

I abbreviated my last post when I got to the mega, so here's a bit about the final table.

Super satellites are very silly at the bubble. Here's an example hand to see why.

The blinds are 4000-8000 with 1000 ante. I'm the second biggest stack with 68000. I find A9 in the cutoff, and I jam. The button has 48000, and 99. Here's the crazy part: he has me dominated, yet if I showed him my hand, he still has to fold.

We're 7 handed with 6 seats and 4500 for 7th, so this is a $5700 bubble. If he wins, which he does 70% of the time, he's very likely to get the seat, say 98%. If he loses, he's out -- that's 30%. What happens if he folds? Well, he's short, but there are two shorter stacks, one of whom is in the bb this hand, and the other of whom will hit the blinds before he will. He only has to outlast one of them. If they were even he'd have a 66% chance of being the next out; given the positions of the blinds and the nonzero chance that some bigger stack will make a mistake or run into aces, he must be over 70% to get a seat. Plus there's a chance of a deal, always, though as it turns out he took a bad deal so maybe that shouldn't be a consideration. If I show him an A, he should only call with rockets there.

He tanked for a long time, then asked for a clock to be put on him (never seen that before) then folded. Calling would be only a tiny mistake given that I had A9, but it would be a huge mistake if I had AJ instead, or any other two overs. So he has to fold, even though, as he put it, "he has my range crushed".

The big stack at the table with 94000 has AQ. He has a very easy fold, since he's basically a lock for the seat, and getting involved in a pot that could jeopardize that can only be a mistake. He should fold AA there. The other small stack had rags, and I won the pot.

Now, I don't know if it's right for me to jam A9 there, but it's certainly right for everyone else to fold almost everything. The problem is that if someone makes a mistake by calling with 99, say, or QQ, they lose equity but I lose even more (the rest of the table benefits). So I don't want to get involved in too too many pots for fear that someone will do something dumb and hurt me.

There are also weird degenerate hands that come up. For instance, one player has the 8000 blind and another 8000 back. Everyone at the table with a playable hand came in for the minraise and checked it down to try and knock him out (I folded 72o). The bb had K9, hit his 9, and quintupled up. The next time it happened, though, it worked and the bb busted (that got us to 7).

Once the guy to my right folded 99, he needed to outlast the other two short stacks. Each of them jammed and took the blinds, which were huge at this point. He decided to try to deal instead.

First he proposed an even split. I objected on the grounds that as a big stack I wanted a little extra. His next position was that the big stacks would get $10k instead of the $10k + $200, and the small stacks would divide up the rest. Um, that seems good for the big stacks, so sure. Then there was some negotiating about who counted as a big stack, but I didn't care since I was one, so I stayed out. But let's check the math.

I have like $86000, and the small stacks have $40-50k. So let's say they're twice as likely as me to bust out. And let's further say that the big stacks are all in the same boat as me, even though there's some variation in stack size. So 4x + 3(2x) = 100%, so x = 10%, which is my chance of busting next. But actually I think it's rather lower based on the fact that I'm much, much harder to call than a small stack, so I'm going to claim that I only have a 6% chance of bubbling here. That means my fair share is 9858, so 10k sounds just fine with no risk. If I think I have a lower chance of bubble then the deal gets worse, but I'm only giving up $29 if I have a 3% chance of busting, and that seems ok too. It's hard to believe I have less than that. If I really do have a 10% chance of bubbling here, my fair share is $9630, so $10k looks like a steal.

So I got a decent deal, but not amazing. The guys who got the amazing deal were the two shorter "big" stacks with 75k and 68k. The 68k guy was halfway between the small stacks and the biggest stacks, and yet got the full big stack payout even though it was totally clear to me he would have settled for less. But the small stacks were motivated to make a deal work out, and the #3 stack was starting to make noise about getting on with it (he'd looked at his hand and it was good), so they didn't argue about it. The 68k guy did agree to chip in enough money to even out the payout for the small stacks so they ended up with $8600 instead of $8566 or whatever, so he did take $120ish less than I did.

I'm happy it ended when it did, because it was 12:40 or so, and could have gone on for a good while longer since it's so damn hard to call someone if they shove.

One note on strategy: a couple players were raising small amounts. This is completely horrible, because they have to fold basically everything if a bigger stack shoves on them. Because taking a small bustout risk is so bad if you have chips, you throw away everything, so raising with smaller amounts is just giving them away. And indeed the guy who came to the final table with $102k bled down to half that via that method, before reverting to jam mode and getting back up a bit. Just awful. I took advantage of that several times to build to my big stack status.

wsop update

2009-06-30T18:23:15Z

It's been a while since I updated here, so here goes.

Last week was a big pile of hosing. I went somewhat deep into the $2500 mixed limit/no limit event, with 50% more than average chips at dinner, partly from picking off bluffs. But then I picked a rather dumb time to bluff myself and was out. Some hands:

I open raise on the button in limit with 22, Victor Ramdin tells me I have K high and three bets me. I call. Flop is T84r, he bets, I call. Turn is another 4, he checks, I should check behind but I bet, and now he check-raises. I decide it's worth two more big bets to see if he's bluffing, so I call the turn and the river, and he shows down KQ no pair. I explain to the table that they should refrain from trying to bluff me.

A few hands later, 100-200 no limit, I open for 525 late with 75s, Victor cold calls on the button. Flop is T63r, and I decide to check instead of betting my gutshot, and Victor checks behind. Turn is a 2, check check. River is a 7, and I value bet my pair for 600. Victor now raises 1000 more with like 1400 back. Odd... I don't really see how he could have a hand other than like TT or 33, and a bluff sure seems more likely. So I call and he raps the table and my hand is good.

Much later, I'm in the 800 bb in no limit with 18000 back, big stack opens for 1950, button who just has me covered call, and I defend with 97s. Flop is K86, checked around. Turn is a Q, I check, big stack bets out 2000, button raises to 6200, and I think my stack is a good size for a resteal and jam my straight draw. But actually this really isn't a good spot -- the button has shown a lot of strength this hand, is a pretty tight player, and would be getting better than 2:1 on his money and might not lay down a hand like AK. The big stack folds and indeed the button has bottom set and calls. I was in a really good spot on the flop with an open ender against a set getting a free card -- my equity there is huge if I don't stack myself if I miss on the turn. Which I did.

The next day I play a few one table satellites, and lose them all. One I got down to four handed with a big stack, but ran into AK on back to back hands with worse aces and was out. In another I was the first person out: lost a small pot, then had my KK cracked by a set but lost the minimum -- I checked the flop and called the turn and river with my overpair -- then ran JJ into KK. Bah.

The trip this week started out with a series of small annoyances. I get to the airport a bit early for my flight, and they're boarding the previous flight to Vegas. I ask about standby but even though they plane is half full and it would cost them nothing to put me on it, they want to charge me $95 for it. I decide I can wait an hour after all. I guess they have to think about the longer game so people don't book the cheapest flight and just standby onto earlier flights that would be more expensive, but it sure seems like there should be some way for them to get me on for a nominal charge instead of more than doubling the cost of the ticket.

Then in a tiny bad beat, despite me having the best boarding pass, the gate guy decides there aren't enough people to bother with being organized and declares everyone can come up at once. Only 14 people on the flight and I got my front row seat anyway so whatever.

Then, when I get to the Bellagio, the computers are down and they're checking in everyone by hand. So it takes an hour to get through the line and get checked in, and during this they fail to put in my credit card for room charges so I can't get internet when I get to the room.

So I've stayed at the Bellagio 5 times this month now, and there have been annoyances every time. The first trip, the lights over the beds didn't work, and it took two trips from the techs to fix them (they fixed one but didn't bother to check the other). Next trip the shower clogged, and again it took multiple calls to fix it. Also there was an annoying buzz coming from I think the ice machine in the hallway that was loud enough it made it a little hard to get to sleep. The third trip they put me in a smoking room, then when I complained told me I would get an upgrade but it'd take a few hours, then reneged on the upgrade. Last week I got another buzzing room, and this one had the check in problem. Plus I couldn't check out this morning from the room, and had to spend another 10 minutes in line to check out.

None of these things are a big deal, but for a hotel that thinks it's high end, it's a pretty long litany of complaints. On the other hand, it really is pretty cheap for a nice hotel this month, so I guess it still feels like a good deal. Especially compared to trips we've taken to places like New York and Madrid, where the hotels were like 5 times the cost and not really that much nicer.

So after the hotel annoyance, the next morning I head over to the Rio pretty early because I think there's some chance the 1500 event will sell out, so I figure I'll buy in at 8 or so and have breakfast. But I get there and discover it sold out the night before at around 9. I hang around in hopes of unregistrations, but there is a line, and eventually I give up and go eat. I come back and Kenny is there planning to unreg because he isn't feeling motivated, and we try to figure out some way for me to get his seat, but the unreg process is strict and they won't transfer the seat to me. We hang around in line planning to get me to the front and then have him unreg and have me be next in line, but the line refuses to move and we give up. He decides to play anyway.

Well bah. I sit on a bench outside the registration room and read my book for the next couple of hours in case there are late unregistrations from people who made day two from the previous day's tournaments, but nothing doing. So I buy into the 3:00 $330 super satellite (which is called a "mega satellite" because I guess "super" isn't impressive enough); the tournament doesn't start until 4, natch. No cash games or one tables running either due to no tables being available, so I end up playing pai gow for an hour. I win $10. It's slightly odd playing a game where I was betting $50, and the woman next to me was betting $450 on my hand. So my wins and losses on my hand are dwarfed by hers (she's also betting that much on her hand). I let her opine on my settings since she cares more than I do, but pai gow is pretty formulaic.

The satellite, however, went well. I play a bunch of small pots then win a big one, then resteal a lot. There are a couple of super passive readable players and I abuse them. I bust a small stack who pushed with TT, which obviously doesn't beat my 77 preflop, then double up another small stack when his AJ beats my AQ. But mostly I am jamming over raises a lot and taking it down. The passive limpy woman next to me tells me repeatedly she really wishes she had my seat, as if I could possibly be getting enough hands that were raising hands by her standards.

I suck out again when the sb limps and I check in the bb with 83s. Flop comes T32 with one of my suit and two clubs, and he bets. I jam over him, he agonizes and calls with JT, but I hit a 3 on the turn. Whee.

We get short and I have decent chips so I slow way down, picking on stacks that need a monster to call me, and avoiding spots where I could go broke. We get down to the final table, then 8 handed. There are 6 seats and 7th place gets 4500. Then, entertainingly, the small stack jams and the bb is agonizing, and the small stack declares he has a pair to get the bb to fold. The TD declares an 8 hand penalty, and the small stacks doubles with 66 against QTs, then has to sit out for a round. He begs but is rejected.

Ok, my flight is boarding, so long story short, at 7 handed I am the #2 stack, we agree to a deal where the big stacks get $10k seats (six places get 10k seats + $200, so I'm "giving up" $200), and the three small stacks split the rest. The small stacks are clustered around 40k, the big stacks around 80k (I have 84), so this seems like a good deal for me. I later did the math, and I think I made about $200 on the deal.

So I won a seat. Playing monday, day 1D.

back in vegas

2009-06-23T17:17:25Z

I flew back out yesterday, landing at 1, at the Rio by 2:30. Only to discover that they weren't running satellites because the seniors' event sold more than they were expecting, and in fact sold out, so they didn't have any tables. Ok, I'll play a cash game until dinner.

I play 10-25 for a while. The game had an interesting rule: the optional Mississippi straddle. Here's how it works: you straddle on the button (for 50). Now the small blind acts first preflop, then the big blind, and around the table, so you get last action preflop (and every other street). Wow is that a hosing for the blinds.

So the question is, what are the strategy adjustments when the straddle is on, and is it worth taking?

Well, there are two effects on the quality of hands to enter a pot. For any given position, say UTG, you now have more information -- the blinds have acted and probably folded. So that's a big incentive to play more hands there, perhaps slightly more than if you were 3utg and the first two people had folded, since there's now dead money in the pot and the most likely candidate to call a raise, the bb, is out. However, there's a countervailing issue which is that if you get called by the button, which is likely, you are going to be out of position post flop, which is a big deal. After some thought and observation, I decide that I'd loosen up my opening standards by one position (instead of two), and raise more than usual preflop to discourage the bb from playing random stuff in position.

Is it a good idea to take it? Well, you're making the pot bigger when you have position. And you're completely hosing the blinds, and that equity has to go somewhere, and I think you get a bigger share of it than anyone else, so that somewhat offsets the $50 you're putting in blind. I think it's worth it, though putting in blinds is always questionable. I did put it on myself.

Two hands. 1: I straddle on the button. Fishy guy opens for 150 from the field, I defend with 66. Flop comes AT6 rainbow, ding. He bets 175, I raise to 525, he reraises 1000 more. He has 1300 back and must be totally pot stuck, so I just stick it all in... and he folds! Bah.

2: Straddle is on, and I'm in early position but after the blinds. One of them limps for 50, I find AKs and raise to 250. There's one cold caller, and the button reraises to 1000. He has 2200 back, and after the limper folds, I shove. The cold caller folds, and the button thinks for a while and folds as well.

So the straddle definitely seems to encourage action.

I pick up shortly after 6 with a $1000 profit and look for dinner companions. JP has just joined the HORSE mega satellite (which turned out to be somewhat less than mega, only getting one table), Sable busted out of the 8-game or whatever she was playing in time to go play the Razz tournament, the rest of the team is all playing that. So do I want to wait until 9 to eat with people, or go off on my own?

I decide to wait and sit into a $25/point chinese game, half high with surrender and honors, half low no surrender. This is bigger than I've played before, but the table talk makes it clear one guy has no idea what he's doing, and I figure that's good enough. I promptly lose my first n hands and am down almost a grand.

But I slog along, and get a straight flush in back which pays $100 from everyone. That was sort of pleasant. Here's how honors work: if you get a qualifying hand, then you win points from people depending on how you do for the rest of the hand. So if you get a straight flush in back, you win 4 points if you lose your other hands, 6 if you win one, and 8 if you win both. Quads in back pay 3-5-7, full in the middle pays 2-4-6, trips in front pay 1-3-5.

It's a bad rule since it just increases the variance (no skill in finding quads), and actually removes some skill from the game since there are settings you can't consider. For instance, the other time I had a qualifying hand I played boat/boat/rags. In a regular game I'd play boat/trips/pair, but I can't even consider that setting because of the honors. This time, though, I was on the upside of the honors variance, so I guess it worked out.

After a while the fish leaves, and I play another couple of hands, then JP come over on break and tells me the game is awful. Ok, I get up. By the time his break is over the best player had left and was replaced by an unknown, which JP thinks means fish, so I sit back down. I'd rank the players as Solid Guy > me > guy with clue who makes mistakes >>> new tyro. I think that's probably good.

I start winning and win some more. I was up a few hundred during my brief haitus, and up 1300 when JP busted and the dinner break for the 5 o'clock tournament rolled around and I picked up. Whee.

JP and I wander around to find people in the Razz tournament and fail, but we do get hold of Sabyl on the phone. She declines dinner, and JP and I try the Noodles place at the gold coast, recommended by Fich. fich is on crack. It was not nearly as good as Ping Pang Pong, the other chinese place there. Perhaps we chose our food poorly, but it just seemed less good.

Then we head back to the satellite room, and both get into a $275 limit omaha 8 satellite. I hose out in 5th place, but JP scrapes and claws his way into the top two and chops it.

I decided not to play any events today. The noon event is the $10k pot limit holdem, which might be good but my real stacks pot limit experience is minimal. The 5:00 event is limit O8, which I can play reasonably but not at a super high level. Anyway tomorrow is the half limit half no limit holdem event which I really want to play, so I don't want to play the 5:00 event today regardless.

So satellites and cash games today for me.

1500 and day two of the 2000

2009-06-17T18:19:11Z

Day two of the 2000 event, to which I limped with just two orbits worth of chips, sure went fast. I was on the button, the hijack opened for 3000, I push for 7400 with AK, he obvious calls. He has Kd9d and I'm in trouble with the Ts8d7d flop, and drawing dead on the turn. Ok, that was fast.

The nice thing about it being instant is that I still had time to get into the 1500 tournament, so I did. I promptly win a couple hands, then a player opens for 525, I raise to 1500, he pushes for 3000 total, I call with AK, he has KK and it holds. I recover a little, then have a crazy hand with Bodog Ari:

He limps in the sb for 150. I have Q9s, which isn't bad, so I raise 300 more. He quickly reraises 1500 more. I think this looks super fishy, like he's just stealing. Ok, what then? I don't really want to call with a third of my stack. Do I have enough to make him fold? My raise would be 2700 more. Ok, I think he'll fold his crap hands to that, and I really think he has nothing here. So I push. He calls after a few seconds with K7o. Hm, I guess I didn't have enough to push him off after all. I cleverly suck out. At least this is going to be good for my image... but the table breaks immediately after that hand.

My new table was amazingly soft. Example: in the 100-200 level, the button limps with 50k back. I have T2o in the sb and fold, the bb raises 300. The button now raises another 500, and the bb calls. Flop is AsTs5d, the action goes check, bet 1200, check-raise to 2200 until I point out that's not legal at which point he corrects it to 2400, call. Turn is a 7, check check. River is the Qs, the bb bets 2500 and the button thinks and calls. The bb tables... 32o, and the button has A6o. So yeah, there's some value to be had at this table.

The juiciest target is that giant stack just to my right, but he ends up giving it away to someone else over a few hands. I still triple up over the next couple of levels basically by not doing anything dumb. Two interesting hands:

I open for 625 in the 100-200-25 level fairly early with AKs, and a player in the middle pushes for 4000. Now the sb cold calls with 7000 behind. It seems like he either has something like JJ or TT where he doesn't want to commit against me just in case I have a monster, or he has AA or KK and is trying to entice me in. I consider pushing, but fold instead. He had JJ, the other guy had KQ. Oops.

The next hand I find A9s and raise again, and now a different player pushes for 2500, and the same guy cold calls again. This is an easy fold so I do, and the sb has AQ versus the jammer's 77.

Eventually the table breaks, and my new table features David Singer, Jeff Madsen, Vanessa Rousso, and after a few minutes, Phil Hellmuth immediately to my right. There's also a reckless guy with a huge stack, so it wasn't all bad.

Side story: at the dinner break I am describing the table to Sabyl and JP, and I don't know who the female player with the pokerstars gear is. Sabyl asks about ethnicity, age, and hair color, and I get two of those wrong. (I said brunette and 30's). In my defense she was wearing a dark colored hat. This is not much of a defense.

It was certainly interesting to play with the pros. For one thing, they do a lot of limping and then folding to a raise, which seems bad to me. Madsen made some pretty questionable plays with a short stack (calling an utg all in with 66, then again with KQ, doubled up both times). Hellmuth sure talks a lot.

We only played one interesting hand. Hellmuth raises to 900 utg in the 200-400-25 round, I defend the bb with AT. Flop is J54 rainbow, check check. Turn is a T putting the second club on the board. I bet 1600, he calls. River is the 6c, I check and he instantly fires out 3000. I call, he has Jc8c for the flush. Maybe I should fold.

I also get into a hand with the big stack and another bad player: big stack opens for 1100, I raise to 3300 with JJ, bb cold calls, big stack calls. I have 30k and they both have me covered. Flop is T93ss, checked to me, I bet 7000, they call. Turn is the 7s, the bb looks at his chips and checks, and the big stack bets 15000. Ugh. I fold... and so does the bb. (This hand actually preceded the Hellmuth hand above.)

I'm down to 17500 at the next break, which is a hair under average, and our table thankfully breaks during the break. The next level is 400-800-100, so I only have 9 rounds in my stack. This is a borderline jam or fold stack, but it's a really great resteal stack. Someone opens for 2200 or so, it's really hard to call a jam back. So I plan to do that.

My second hand I get dealt AA, someone opens for 2100, I jam, they fold. Two hands later I have AJs, open for 2100, and now the sb jams for 9400 more. I call, he has A7s, but escapes with a chop. Then in the sb a few hands after that, someone opens for 2100 early, I jam with TT, and get shown AA and the door.

I have a meeting it would be really inconvenient to miss on friday, so I'm just going to play satellites and take a bit of a break today. Next week is my last shot before the main event.

limping into day two

2009-06-16T16:54:59Z

Brief report: I had pretty soft tables all day yesterday. However I was hampered by feeling sick -- I had to take several urgent bathroom breaks, which is not really what you want in your poker tournament.

Once it hurt quite a bit. In the 400-800-75 level, I scurry off, and come back to by big blind. However, I didn't get back quite in time so my hand is dead. I look at it anyway only to discover KK. There's an all in for 14000 and a call, and I would have won a very nice pot. Bah.

A little later an aggressive player raises to 2100 in the 500-1000-100 level, big stack in the field calls, I call in the bb with KhQs. Flop is KJ7 all spades. I check, aggro player bets 4400, big stack folds, I check raise to 12000, aggro guy instantly pushes for 17000 more. Ugh. I fold, he shows As2s.

I pick up some blinds, then lay down to a resteal, then we get to the last hand of the night. I have A9s and I open for 2400 in the cutoff with A9s. The bb pushes for 22000. This is normally a fold, but I get a clear impression that he doesn't want me to call. He'd mentioned earlier that people don't like to bust on the last hand of the night, which is true. The longer I look at him, the more I think he is just restealing.

The problem is, I should just fold anyway. I don't have much and he could have a baby pair or something else I might be a tiny favorite against. But I decide to call, and he has AJ, and I now have 7400 left. This is the player, btw, I would have busted if I'd gotten back in time to play my KK.

I'm not sure who he was but a dealer called him "Chow", I think. He evidently has three bracelets and plays in the big game at the Bellagio regularly. He is a middle aged asian man who loves the massage -- he had a massage going at the table for literally hours. At $2/min, that can add up.

all sets all the time

2009-06-12T05:30:46Z

So the 1500 event today started out really well. I busted someone in the first level by flopping a set, then nearly busted someone else the next level by flopping top set, but failed to put him in on the river. Then I won a big pot with *another* set. At the second break I had 25000, and ran that up to 30000 right before dinner.

But then I doubled up a guy for 8.5k with QQ against his KK in the 150-300-25 level. Two hands later, he opens for 800, one call, and I call from the sb with 66. Flop is K64 all spades. I check, he bets 1600, other guy folds, I raise 3400 more, he pretty quickly calls. Turn is a K, I bet 6000 and he pushes for like 8000 more. I of course call with my full house. He has AsKd for top trips and the nut flush draw. The river pairs the 4 and I'm suddenly short.

I find Kenny and have dinner with him, Terrence, Matt (who is on break from the HORSE final table), a guy named Micah, and Bill (only there for 5 minutes). Micah, it turns out, is the guy from yesterday's satellite that three barreled on the flush board when I had top/top. He told me that if he knew who I hung out with he wouldn't have tried that.

I opt not to be a nit and buy out of ccr even though I got by far the cheapest meal since I wanted a salad and other people got steak and seafood. Luckily (and traditionally) Matt footed the bill.

Back to the tournament, I'm pretty short with like 5.5k playing 200-400-50, so I have an easy shove with ATs. 66 finds a call from the button, and it holds up. Feh.

I check in on Matt. He is sitting at the final table looking bored. I go see if I can find the rest of the gang, and I hear them selling the last two seats in a 1030 satellite. Ok, fine. I buy in, then put up 500 for a last longer. Then Greg Raymer sits down with us. He doesn't recognize me, but after we chat a little bit about BARGE and whatnot, he actually somehow recalls my name. I was impressed.

That was the quickest satellite I've played yet. Called with 66 in the bb, missed and folded. Called with T9s in the sb, missed and folded. Raised some limpers with AKs, Greg called, I checked it down with him and he rivered the fourth club to make a flush with his 97o. Loose guy raises and gets 4 callers for 150 each, then I raise 800 more with QQ and he calls. Flop is A high, I bet out 1100, he jams, I fold, he shows an A. Then a limper, a raise, and I jam with 99. The raiser calls with AQ, I flop a set, but he backdoors the four flush to bust me. I think I looked at 15 hands, got way above average starting cards, and didn't win a pot.

I hike back to the bellagio, and wander past the poker room. There's a very good looking 25-50 game with 100 ante from the bb, so I decide I'll sit. I buy in for the minimum $5k. Notable hands:

I raise utg with AKs to 200, bb defends. Flop A54 with one of my suit. He checks, I bet 300, he raises to 1100, I shove, he folds.

I call a raise from the bb with 99. Flop is T93 all diamonds. I check-call 500, then 1500 on a black turn, then the rest of my stack on the A high river. He declares a pair of aces and I table my set.

I raise from the field with KK to 200, sb calls. Flop is K83 all clubs. This is sure happening a lot today. He check-calls 400, then 1000 on the blank turn, then 1800 on the Q river.

I call 200 from the sb with 77, then the bb raises 900 more. The original raiser calls, and I do too. Flop is K76hh, ding. I check, bb bets 2000, other guy folds, I raise 4000 more, he calls with only another 5000 behind. Turn is a T, I put him in, he calls. My set is good again.

I play a few more smallish pots, but am getting kind of tired and holy shit I just won over $20k in less than two hours. So yeah, that makes up for hosing in the tournament and satellite today, in a huge way.

I flopped 9 sets today in about 10 hours of play. I won 7 of them. I broke even in the tournament with sets, winning 3 and losing the big one, busted out of the satellite (but the money went in preflop) with one, and won with all four in the cash game. The most set-tastic day I've had.

Side note about Jerry Buss. He owns the Lakers. The Lakers are in the NBA finals, playing tonight. Jerry is here playing poker. This seems odd. We talked about it at dinner, and again at the satellite, and Raymer claims that Buss doesn't fly. He'll drive to Vegas or Arizona or other close places, but he just won't travel to far away places. Could be true. Evidently he was here last year too.